The Australian Mining Review

We could have been sitting on the banks of the Euphrates eating figs. That is, until someone got the bright idea to maximise shareholder returns. Now, we sit in web browsers making wagers as to when exactly the current round of bloodshed in nearby waters will come to an end.The stock market has long drawn criticism from those on the outside who view it as an economic machine ruled by investor sentiment and untethered to everyday life. Guy Debord offers us a critique of this estrangement in his The Society of the Spectacle. Debord posits that “the society which rests on modern industry is not accidentally or superficially spectacular, but fundamentally spectaclist. In the spectacle, the goal is nothing, development everything. The spectacle aims at nothing other than itself.”Yet one could still argue that the stock market is not pure spectacle. However distorted it becomes, it still retains a material tether. Well-functioning secondary markets help capital flow toward productive uses and are only made possible by real people spending real dollars. However imperfect, the market is still connected to its people.Enter, prediction markets. While the stock market still attempts, or appears, to serve production, prediction markets don’t even bother, instead monetising anticipation itself.If you have managed to remain blissfully unaware, prediction markets allow users to trade on the likelihood of future events. Bets on the platform range from issues like Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? What will Trump say in April? Will the US confirm that aliens exist by…?The object of exchange is the event itself as a probability. It’s a market solely concerned with hype, or as Polymarket would call it, wisdom.Polymarket Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today.I first heard of prediction markets when US Rep. Ilhan Omar was attacked during a town hall meeting. Online, people were betting on the substance that was sprayed on her. Now, traders bet on missile strikes in Iran and insults flying out of Trump’s mouth.Proponents of prediction markets argue that they aggregate dispersed information into forecasts about uncertain future events. Even where they are reasonably accurate, what they trade is not an enterprise producing goods or services, but an anticipated outcome.Unsurprisingly, prediction markets have begun to elicit bouts of paranoia. For the market, insider trading and corruption are major concerns. For me, the concern is the grotesque estrangement of real people from tragedy as we load currency onto spectacle with little concern for impact. On Polymarket, crises are no longer lived realities; they are odds to watch and positions to take.Proponents of prediction markets argue that a major benefit could be derived in the form of an aggregated universal truth. By engaging individuals across the world from different stations, beliefs and backgrounds, diverse and dispersed information is synthesised, and users are delivered a supposedly more accurate probability for any given situation. Rather than relying on news sources, investors, politicians or other figureheads, a broader swath of public opinion is accounted for, adding more data and insight to the probability equation.Polymarket Note on Middle East Markets continued: After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realised that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.This, however, relies on incentivised truth-telling. Prediction markets hope that because individuals are financially motivated, they will place bets that align with their true beliefs. But conflating belief with truth does not produce accuracy. According to Polymarket, there is a 4% chance Jesus Christ will return before 2027.But it looks like prediction markets will miss their chance to disperse those fears, as they have already been undermined by corruption.US-based trading app Robinhood has reportedly begun excluding some prediction market contracts, with Robinhood UK president Jordan Sinclair saying the company is “very focused on market abuse, insider trading”.Remember when Trump issued his warning on Truth Social that “a whole civilisation will die tonight”? If I had taken a temperature check of public opinion at that moment, I would say the majority thought we were inching towards a point of no return rather than a ceasefire. There was even a countdown.And yet, just before the ceasefire was announced, newly created Polymarket accounts made highly specific bets on the outcome, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits. The Associated Press reported that at least 50 wallets placed substantial bets before Trump announced the ceasefire, and that these were the first bets made by those wallets.This isn’t confined to Washington, either. In February, two Israelis were charged over alleged bets placed using classified military information, and later that month, Kalshi accused a MrBeast video editor of insider trading on markets tied to the YouTuber.The impacts aren’t only reactive, either. In March, a Times of Israel reporter said Polymarket users sent him death threats and pressured him to amend his report on a missile strike near Jerusalem which became central to a wager on the site.Beyond investor corruption, the real scandal of prediction markets is not just that they let people bet on the future, but that they sit within a culture that monetises crisis while moralising individual behaviour. A culture that turns public life into persona, sentiment and price. Governments increasingly redirect attention from corporate and structural responsibility to everyday conduct. Individuals are named and shamed for using plastic straws, eating meat, driving to work or consuming too much, while billion-dollar industries burn through fuel at scales beyond personal comparison.Last week, the Federal Government was in the hot seat over its ‘Every little bit helps’ campaign, a fuel-saving advertising push costing up to $20m and encouraging Australians to use less fuel where possible. Some cried out that it was like plastic straws all over again. But the idea was still valid: individual consumption of our resources is a beast worth taming or at least keeping an eye on.But the question remains: what about the industries using billions of litres of fuel each year? What about inadequate public transport systems that make commuting to low-paid office jobs inseparable from car dependence? What about the fact that the government, which wants us to believe its hands are tied, is one of the few actors with any meaningful power over the fuel crisis, and at least some responsibility for it?The problem is not that individual restraint is meaningless. It is that personal consumption is positioned as the moral centre of crisis management, while the larger systems shaping the crisis remains immune to scrutiny. Disjointed public transport, corporate fuel dependence and state policy failures do not disappear just because individuals are told to tighten their belts.At the pump or on Polymarket, we grasp at paper straws, hoping to grab a bit of control over our circumstances. The ugliness of this system is not only that tragedy can be watched and traded at a distance, but that responsibility for fixing the social breakdown behind conflict is then handed back to individuals as a series of choices. All the while, we are left completely disconnected from any real locus of control.Debord calls this the alienation of the spectator: the more you contemplate, the less you live. The estrangement is a surrender of our own lives. And when the stakes are high enough, it’s a surrender of our own humanity for the chance to make, or save, a quick buck.Luckily for those of us in Australia, prediction market platforms, much like single use plastic, are functionally banned.Off the Record is The Australian Mining Review’s weekly column. 

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) recorded Q3 FY26 revenue of $265m, primarily driven by increasing prices and higher volume sales of both neodymium-praseodymium and total rare earth oxide products.The miner produces 1996t of neodymium-praseodymium, 8t of dysprosium and terbium and first production of samarium oxide in Q3.Lynas says it is closely monitoring its supply chains, including fuel supply and other raw materials affected by geopolitics and global fuel markets.“To date, we have not experienced any material disruptions due to the current global fuel supply situation,” Lynas said.“However, price increases are expected for a number of materials. It is difficult to forecast the magnitude and duration of these price increases. Our supply chain team is monitoring this closely and accelerating projects which should deliver greater efficiency.”Lynas has benefited from a reduction in diesel fuel requirements, following the full commissioning of the 65MW Mt Weld hybrid renewable power station in H1 FY26.Compared to Q3 FY25, when Mt Weld was operating a diesel power plant, the new power station has saved more than 870,000l of diesel, according to Lynas.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) posted a 9% year-on-year increase in copper equivalent production and its second-highest Q1 Pilbara iron ore production since 2018, up 13% year-on-year.The miner said the quarter was impacted by two cyclones, while warning of growing uncertainty around supply chains and costs due to conflict in the Middle East.Rio Tinto recorded an 8mt impact to iron ore shipments from Tropical Cyclones Mitchell and Narelle and a .9mt impact to bauxite production from Cyclone Narelle.Rio Tinto chief executive Simon Trott comments on the Q1 results.“Operating excellence drove 9% YoY copper equivalent1 production growth across our portfolio as the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine continues to ramp up as planned and our integrated aluminium business, again, delivered a strong performance,” he said.“Our Pilbara iron ore mines performed strongly, while shipments were impacted by two cyclones in the quarter.“We achieved the historic land exchange at Resolution Copper, with our project team focused on unlocking the next phase of one of the world’s largest untapped copper deposits.“The unmatchable mix and scale of our portfolio has ensured growth and supply chain resilience against changing operating conditions as we continue to closely monitor the evolving situation in the Middle East.”Rio Tinto says the impacts of the Middle East conflict have been limited on the supply-side while commodity prices have responded favourably.Iron ore, copper and lithium operations remained largely unaffected.As for fuel, Rio says higher diesel prices steepened its cost curve while higher jet fuel prices did not disrupt the business.Fatal incidents at Simandou and Kennecott led to both operations shutting down during the quarter. The operations were progressively restarted once conditions allowed.“Safety is the foundation of our business,” Mr Trott said.“The tragic loss of two colleagues this year, at Simandou and Kennecott, is a stark reminder that we must ensure everyone goes home safely at the end of every shift.”A staged restart at the Kennecott underground project commenced April 16.

A worker has died at a quarry in Sheldon following a fatal forklift incident. Resources Safety and Health Queensland (RSHQ) has confirmed it is investigating the incident and enquiries are underway. “Our thoughts are with the worker’s family, friends and colleagues during this difficult time,” a RSHQ spokesperson said. 

The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) has called on the Federal Government to reform critical minerals project approvals, warning that opportunities will only translate into regional economic strength if projects can move from approval to construction and into long-term operation.The MCA’s submission to Federal Parliament’s Inquiry into the factors shaping social licence and economic development outcomes in critical minerals projects across Australia notes that regions with a significant mining industry had a lower unemployment rate and higher median income than the national average.Based on ABS data, the MCA found that across the Australian Mining Cities Alliance regions of Mount Isa and Isaac, Broken Hill and Karratha, East Pilbara and Kalgoorlie-Boulder, the unemployment rate was 3.58%, lower than the Australian average rate at the time of 5.1% while median income was $33,000 higher ($74,490 in mining regions against $41,860 Australia-wide).“Mining is the central driver to the long-term development of many regions across Australia which may otherwise have declined or even disappeared,” MCA chief executive Tania Constable said in a statement.“Based on many decades of experience by MCA members of delivering significant long-lasting benefits to regional communities, it is clear that the burgeoning critical minerals sector will create and sustain region-building economic infrastructure.“In towns with a fine line between viability and decline with small population bases, limited housing, stretched health and education services and high infrastructure costs., critical minerals development can be a stabilising force.“Long-life mining is the stable foundation that makes every other development pathway possible, helping communities to grow, services (particularly health and education) to remain viable and local businesses invest with confidence.”The MCA has urged the Federal Government to make it easier and more predictable for critical minerals projects to get built and operated in regional Australia.The submission outlines a range of measures, including strengthening planning, environmental and project approval systems; reforming the Native Title Act 1993 future acts framework; aligning migration and workforce training measures; coordinated infrastructure planning; cross-jurisdictional policy alignment and expanding targeted capability programs for local and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander businesses.The inquiry has not yet reported, but it is expected to culminate in a parliamentary report that could shape future policy on approvals, regional development and social licence for critical minerals projects.

Alcoa’s (ASX: AAI) first quarter aluminium shipments fell 8% while alumina shipments fell 31%, partly due to shipping delays linked to war in the Middle East and Cyclone Narelle.Lower sales of externally sourced alumina and seasonally lower first quarter shipments also weighed on lower alumina shipments. Proactive inventory repositioning within North America and decreased trading also drove down aluminium shipments.The company still managed to achieve revenue of $4.46b (US$3.2b), though down 7% from the previous quarter. Alcoa posted a profit of $593m (US$425m), down from $765m (US$548m) the year prior.Alcoa president and chief executive William F. Oplinger comments on the results.“Our experienced team performed very well managing the impacts from the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle,” he said.“We delivered a solid quarter excluding shipment timing impacts, which we expect to realize in the second quarter of 2026.”Alumina production fell 5% sequentially to 2.4mt primarily due to lower production at Australian refineries due to the beginning of seasonal maintenance cycles.The company’s successful San Ciprián smelter restart helped keep the aluminium segment steady, with first quarter production flat at 607,000t.

Fredon, a wholly owned subsidiary of NRW Holdings (ASX: NWH), has secured five electrical and mechanical contracts with a combined value of about $160m.The largest award is a $110m electrical works package on a Federal Government major infrastructure project in Northern Australia. The project is planned for completion in mid-2028.Fredon has also secured a $23m design and construct contract for electrical services in the Festival Towers project in South Australia. The project is expected to be completed in mid-2028.Fredon chief executive Scott Olsen comments on the awards.“The award of these five contracts across the health and infrastructure sectors reinforces Fredon’s ability to deliver complex projects and services across both diverse industries and geographies,” he said.NRW chief executive Jules Pemberton comments on the contracts.“I am delighted to share the award of this suite of new contracts acquired by Fredon,” he said.“I am excited to see the growth opportunities being harnessed by Fredon since acquisition, particularly in sectors where demand for specialised electrical capability has increased, such as infrastructure and renewables.”Additional contracts include mechanical works at the Mt Barker Hospital project in South Australia, design and construct package for electric bus charging infrastructure in South Australia and Victoria.