The Australian Mining Review

Humans innately desire predictability. During times of crisis, it’s only natural to seek a sense of control in an unpredictable environment.While the concept of preparedness is part of our basic survival instincts, it took root as a broader movement during the Cold War as fears of nuclear annihilation ran rampant.During this time, the US Government encouraged citizens to build fallout shelters and schools even ran bomb drills — not that there’s much anyone can do to survive a mushroom cloud.Out of this anxiety, a survivalist movement grew.Survivalists, or doomsday preppers, are traditionally associated with extremism in the form of right-wing conservatism and radical anti-government conspiracy theories.The stereotypical survivalist is a white, backcountry, conservative male who may or may not also be bordering on deranged. However, as anxiety about the state of the world rises, the number of preppers globally are growing and as a result, the demographic is changing.During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, prepping moved from a fringe culture to a mainstream response — and one that kind of seemed reasonable.With the cost of living rising and supply chains being frequently disrupted by geopolitics and extreme weather events, this movement is growing in popularity as everyday people seek self-reliance.Though the average person is unlikely to have months’ worth of supplies stockpiled in a bunker in case of complete societal collapse, they now tend to err on the side of caution.This is evident if you grab an extra carton of eggs when the shelves look a little sparse. Or if you decide to head down to the servo and fill up after reports that fuel prices are going to jump over night.These seem like perfectly reasonable decisions. The problem is when individual rationality morphs into collective irrationality.What starts out as a handful of somewhat sensible people taking minor proactive measures can quickly escalate into many people making the same decisions simultaneously. And when that feared scarcity is unfounded rather than genuine, panic buying can create the very shortages it is intended to insulate against as collective action overwhelms fragile systems.This is the panic buying paradox. And we are seeing it in real time with fuel supplies.People are rushing to buy fuel because they think it will run out, and it’s running out because they are rushing to buy it.At an industry event this morning, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called panic buying “pretty bloody stupid”. Despite this sentiment, when I see others filling up portable fuel tanks at the bowser, I am overcome with a nagging sense that those people know something I don’t.Present concerns are understandable with Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz driving crude oil prices well above US$100 a barrel.The Philippines have already declared a national emergency due to severe fuel shortages. And in Australia, fuel prices have increased by about 40% since the start of the war.Most Australians don’t panic buy or hoard supplies; they buy a little extra “just in case”. Are you buying an extra packet of toilet paper when the shelves look a little low? That seems reasonable when you remember the COVID-19 toilet paper crisis of the not-so-distant past. Are you a mobile business owner that just saw media coverage suggesting fuel could be 40% more expensive tomorrow? You might want to grab your keys and fill up. On second thought, grab your jerry can too.The problem isn’t that these decisions are irrational; it’s that these “just-in-case” purchases are combining with a “just-in-time” supply chain. This means stock is on trucks, not in back rooms. This keeps costs low, but it also assumes tomorrow will look exactly like today. Even a small shift along the supply chain can look like a complete system failure.During the pandemic, we saw what happens when supply chains fail to absorb external shock. Those wounds are barely healed. As a new crisis looms, it’s understandable that people want to take matters into their own hands.A perceived lack of transparency, fairness and compassion from decision-makers during unprecedented crisis eroded Australian’s confidence in their governments ability to protect them. Many Australians now are untrusting of the government to plan for times of crisis. Fairly so. The pandemic demolished public trust.Australia sits at the end of a very long and fragile fuel supply chain. Much of what we consume passes through the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran. The cascading effects of the war are now dramatically interfering with our supply chains.Rather than labelling people queuing at petrol stations as irrational, we should acknowledge that we don’t know their personal circumstances. We don’t know if their livelihood depends on their access to a vehicle. We don’t know if the fuel will be used to run essential generators. Possibly most importantly, we don’t know if they have the capacity to absorb a 40% rise in fuel prices.Even if you think doomsday preppers are batty and panic buying is “un-Australian”, the lesson isn’t that people are irrational: it’s that our supply chains are ineffective.Neither survivalism nor panic buying is inherently evil. But neither is virtuous if it comes at the expense of others. The goal shouldn’t be to outlast everyone else in a crisis — it should be to build a society where there is no need to stockpile in the first place.Although politicians are urging the public not to panic, they risk encouraging the opposite effect and further fostering fear. It seems the next plight the government faces is a crisis of trust.Off the Record is The Australian Mining Review’s weekly column. 

IGO chief financial officer Johan van Vuuren has resigned, effective immediately, after commencing in the role on April 1.Mr van Vuuren and IGO (ASX: IGO) have agreed that the position was not the right fit and he will pursue other opportunities more aligned with his career aspirations.IGO says it has commenced arrangements for interim cover and will undertake a process to identify a permanent replacement.IGO managing director and chief executive Ivan Vella said the company was focused on a smooth transition.“We wish Johan well in his next chapter,” he said.“IGO has a strong and capable finance team, and the board and I are focused on a smooth transition.”

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) will invest $100m to support the delivery of more than 500 homes for regional frontline workers, as part of the WA Government’s Seven Cities Vision for regional WA.The Government Regional Officer Housing (GROH) expansion will be delivered across five years.The program will be partially funded through a partnership with major resources companies through the Resources Community Investment Initiative (RCII), with $100m from Rio Tinto, $50m from BHP and $20m from Hancock.Rio Tinto’s contribution will support new homes in Karratha, Wickham, Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Roebourne, while the broader state-wide program also includes 26 homes for regional frontline workers in Albany.Rio Tinto iron ore chief executive Matthew Holcz comments on the initiative.“Rio Tinto has a long and deep connection to regional WA, directly supporting six towns across the Pilbara and, through our fly-in fly-out program, providing employment and economic activity to a further six communities from the Kimberley to the Great Southern,” he said.“Being a good partner to those communities means investing in the things that make them work; the teachers, police and frontline workers who keep them safe and thriving. And for those people to be there, the right housing needs to be in place.“This $100m investment does exactly that, delivering more homes in Karratha, Wickham, Tom Price, Paraburdoo and Roebourne and supporting the many people who live and work in these communities.”WA Premier Roger Cook says Regional cities like Karratha and Port Hedland have been central to WA becoming the strongest economy in the nation.“While traditional industries like mining will continue to thrive, Karratha and Port Hedland will be front-and-centre to my government’s vision and becoming a renewable energy powerhouse and making more things here,” he said.“To seize the big job-creating projects in front of us in Karratha and Port Hedland, we need to continue to invest in economic infrastructure and expand their roles as hubs providing quality services to the towns and remote communities within the Pilbara.“I commend and thank Rio Tinto, BHP and Hancock Prospecting for partnering with my government on this GROH housing build, to support the delivery of better services in the communities in which they operate.”

Whitehaven (ASX: WHC) run-of-mine production fell to 9.5mt in Q3 FY26, with weather disruptions weighing on Queensland output while prices surged off the back of conflict in the Middle East.Queensland managed ROM production was down 28% from the prior quarter to 4.1mt, while NSW managed ROM production was broadly in line with the December quarter at 5.4mt.Whitehaven chief executive and managing director Paul Flynn says the company is on track to meet FY26 guidance.“Production in the March quarter was broadly in line with plan reflecting strong outcomes from NSW open cut operations and solid results from Queensland operations in a weather impacted quarter,” he said.“For the first nine months of the year we have produced 29.5mt of ROM, and we are on track to be firmly in the upper half of guidance for FY26.“Equity sales of 6.8mt for the quarter were also strong and are tracking at the upper end of guidance for the year.“Revenue mix for the quarter was ~58% from metallurgical coal sales and ~42% from thermal coal sales.“Cost discipline remains a priority, and we are tracking well within the guidance range of $130-145/t for the year. Higher thermal coal prices are more than offsetting the impact of higher diesel costs.“Whitehaven’s financial position is strong. Our successful refinancing of the acquisition debt facility and smaller finance facilities will deliver considerable savings in the order of ~A$50-55mpa.”Metallurgical coal prices were up 18% and thermal coal prices were up 11% quarter-on-quarter.Whitehaven said metallurgical coal pricing was supported by tighter supply from Queensland, while thermal coal was lifted by Middle East-linked energy market volatility, tightening LNG supply and the potential for gas-to-coal switching.

PLS Group (ASX: PLS) has commenced commissioning of its mid-stream demonstration plant at the Pilgangoora operation in WA. Commissioning follows completion of an ownership restructure that gives PLS full ownership and operational control of the plant, alongside up to $38.1m in ARENA grant funding and a lithium phosphate offtake agreement with Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology. First product is expected in Q3 CY26.  Designed to process about 27,000t of spodumene concentrate annually into about 3000t of lithium phosphate, the demonstration plant is intended to test lower-emissions processing technology and assess future commercial pathways beyond just spodumene concentrate production. PLS managing director and chief executive Dale Henderson says global battery supply chains are still taking shape in this high-growth market, and over time the most competitive and technologically viable pathways will determine where long-term value is captured.  “The mid-stream demonstration plant is a deliberate step by PLS to test whether more value can be captured at the resource by moving further along the lithium value chain,” he said. “We acknowledge the Government’s continued support through ARENA grant funding, which reflects the potential of this project to deliver lower-emissions processing and increased onshore value-add in critical minerals. Together with our offtake relationship with leading LFP cathode producer Ronbay, this provides a strong foundation as we move into commissioning. “This is a disciplined validation and optimisation phase. If the technology performs and the product is accepted by the market, it creates a meaningful strategic option for PLS. If it does not, we will have tested it in a controlled and capital-efficient way.” The milestone builds on a strong March quarter for PLS, with the company reporting record spodumene production of 232,400t, up 12% on the previous quarter.  Revenue increased 52% to $567m, while unit operating costs fell 11% to $520/t. Operating cash margin rose to $461m and PLS finished the quarter with cash reserves of $1.46b.  PLS reaffirmed FY26 guidance and said the quarter reflected improved plant reliability and continued momentum across the Pilgangoora operation. Alongside commissioning, the company continued advancing broader growth initiatives, including preparing for the restart of operations at its Ngungaju plant, the P2000 expansion feasibility study and downstream development through its POSCO joint venture.

WA miners and explorers affected by fuel security issues are now able to apply for exemptions on minimum expenditure requirements for their tenures.The new policy, enacted by the WA Government, aims to ease the cost burden on local companies amid an ongoing period of elevated fuel prices.Minimum expenditure requirements are a central feature of WA’s mining tenure system, intended to promote active exploration and development and deter land banking or tenement warehousing.However, the WA Government recognises that given prevailing fuel security issues, strict compliance with expenditure requirements may be contrary to the interests of the state.WA Mines and Petroleum Minister David Michael says the WA Government is committed to easing the burden on its mining sector.“I’m acutely aware that the high cost of fuel and in some cases supply issues are creating significant challenges for our exploration and mining sector,” he said.The new policy will be reviewed at the end of 2026.

Fortescue (ASX: FMG) has significantly boosted its green energy spend to fast-track the delivery of its Pilbara green energy grid as the company finishes Q3 with a cash balance of $5.89b .During Q3, Fortescue shipped 48.4mt of iron ore, a 5% year-on-year increase, bringing the total volume for FY26 so far to a record high of 148.7mt, despite major weather disruptions impacting production at its Iron Bridge operations and lower realised hematite prices.Hematite C1 unit costs were 4% lower than the previous quarter, contributing to an average unit cost of US$18.52/wmt for the first three quarters of FY26.The company finished the quarter with a net debt of $2.24b after recording a capital expenditure of about $1.28b and a payout of $1.82b in interim dividends.Fortescue also confirmed its board had approved an additional $954m spend on top of the already approved $8.7b , to develop new green energy infrastructure to meet growing industry power demands, largely driven by data centres.Fortescue metals and operations chief executive Dino Otranto says the company is already seeing the benefits of decarbonising its operations.“Given volatility in global energy markets, there’s never been a clearer reason why this matters,” he said.Unlike other large renewable hubs, which feed intermittently into national or other power systems, Fortescue’s off-grid system is expected to be the largest of its kind dedicated to decarbonising major industry.Fortescue anticipates the 290MW of installed renewable capacity to meet the fixed energy requirements of its ore processing facilities, enabling daytime “green processing” across its Pilbara operations, by early 2027.The system is expected to ramp up to power all of Fortescue’s operations for 24-hour periods completely without fossil fuels by the end of 2027, well ahead of the companies previous Real Zero by 2030 target.Fortescue executive chairman Andrew Forrest says the company is already demonstrating in the Pilbara that heavy industry can operate on a fully integrated renewable grid.“We are now extending this model to new customers, particularly data centres, helping meet one of the fastest growing sources of demand in the world,” he said.Fortescue is expecting full completion of its Pilbara green grid by the end of 2028, which includes 1.2GW of solar capacity, more than 600MW of wind generation and 4-5GWh of battery energy storage.During the quarter, Fortescue also completed its acquisition of Alta Copper, making its official move into the copper industry as it took over ownership of the Cañariaco copper project in Northern Peru.