The Australian Mining Review

Australia’s electricity sector is showing significantly greater resilience to global energy shocks compared to the 2022 crisis, despite escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran driving sharp increases in global fuel prices, according to Wood Mackenzie.Despite oil prices surging more than 60% and Asian spot gas prices doubling compared to last year, Australian wholesale electricity prices have remained relatively subdued at about $70/MWh in Q1-Q2 2026, according to Wood Mackenzie.This is a stark contrast to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis, when similar global fuel price shocks drove National Electricity Market (NEM) wholesale prices up by about 200% to average above $250/MWh.Wood Mackenzie energy storage and solar senior research analysis Natalie Thompson says this divergence reflects a structural shift in Australia’s power system.“Growth in renewables and batteries, reduced reliance on gas-fired generation, and the rise of distributed energy resources are materially lowering exposure to international fossil fuel markets,” she said.“Australia’s energy transition is now delivering tangible energy security benefits alongside emissions reductions.“While vulnerabilities remain to particularly from extreme weather events and supply-demand imbalances, the country’s power sector is steadily decoupling from global fossil fuel market volatility.”Battery storage has emerged as a critical factor in this transformation, with batteries’ share of price-setting rising from about 2% in early 2022 to about 20% by late 2025, while gas has decreased from 10% to less than 5%, according to Wood Mackenzie.Battery output tripled in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, whilst gas generation declined almost 30% year-on-year during the same period, Wood Mackenzie reports.The report also found that Q2 of FY26 saw renewable energy reach record penetration levels across the NEM with midday solar oversupply now routinely driving wholesale prices to near-zero and, in some states, into negative territory, enabling battery systems to charge at minimal cost and discharge during evening peaks to replace traditional gas-fired generation.Wood Mackenzie’s analysis highlights that Australia’s distributed solar revolution has reached material scale, with more than 4.3 million rooftop solar systems installed nationally.The current fuel crisis may also be accelerating transport electrification across the country. March 2026 sales figures show battery electric vehicles capturing more than 14% of new car sales, with total electric vehicle share exceeding 20%, double the figures recorded in March 2025, according to Wood Mackenzie data.However, residual vulnerabilities remain with “dark doldrums”, or extended periods with little sun or wind, still requiring dispatchable backup generation currently dominated by gas-fired plants.“Today’s batteries are highly effective for short-duration storage, but they cannot sustain the system through multi-day low renewable periods,” Ms Thompson said.“Longer-duration storage solutions, such as pumped hydro and extended-duration batteries, will be critical to ensuring reliability.“The key question now is whether Australia can maintain the momentum of renewable and storage deployment to address remaining vulnerabilities before scheduled coal plant closures, to ensure the energy security dividend can be sustained.”Addressing these challenges requires coordinated rollout of generation, storage and network infrastructure investments, according to Wood Mackenzie, including longer duration storage technologies such as 8-hour-plus batteries and pumped hydro to provide extended firming capacity during unfavourable weather patterns.

South32 (ASX: S32) has lifted Taylor growth capital at its Hermosa project in Arizona by $1.5b (US$1.1b), while pushing first production out to the second half of FY28.  Pre-production capital expenditure has been brought up to about US$3.3b, with the miner citing scope changes, higher construction costs and broader inflationary pressures including the impacts of US tariffs.  South32 now expects Taylor’s 4.3mtpa processing plant to achieve nameplate capacity by FY31. The delay has been attributed to contractor performance and productivity challenges in shaft construction, with mitigation measures only partially offsetting impacts on development timelines.  Despite the changes, South32 said updated studies continue to support Taylor as a large-scale, long-life underground operation, with an initial operating life extended to about 33 years, up from 28 years at final investment approval. The project is expected to deliver about 10.4mt of zinc equivalent production over its life, including 3.7mt of zinc, 4.6mt of lead, and 247moz of silver, with steady-state production averaging about 346,000tpa of zinc equivalent.  At steady state, the project is expected to generate average annual EBITDA of US$650m, with a post-tax net present value of about US$3.1b, based on long term pricing assumptions. Hermosa, which also includes the Peake copper deposit and Clark battery-grade manganese deposit, is positioned as a regional-scale development with potential to supply critical minerals across multiple decades.